Check NOAA’s current local aurora grid near a place and compare it with global geomagnetic activity and local sky conditions.
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The local OVATION value answers a more specific question than Kp: how strong is modeled auroral precipitation near this geographic grid point right now? Kp remains useful as broader context. When both are elevated and the observer is in darkness with clear weather, the evidence is much more coherent.
The endpoint used here is NOAA’s latest OVATION forecast product. It should not be applied retrospectively to a sighting from days ago. Sky Event Radar marks current-only evidence as unavailable rather than using the present to explain the past.
Cameras often reveal auroral color before the unaided eye does. A low local probability can still coincide with weak photographic aurora, and a higher modeled probability can be invisible behind cloud. Use the number as evidence, not a verdict.
