SIDE-BY-SIDE
Evidence matrix
Use this as a first triage table. No single row proves identity; the value comes from combining independent clues.
| Category | Motion | Typical duration | Blinking | Number | Strong visual clue | Best external evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meteor / fireball | Very fast | <1–10 sec | No regular strobe | Usually 1 | Trail/fragmentation | CNEOS match, shower context |
| Satellite / ISS | Smooth steady | 1–10 min | Normally no | 1 | Abrupt shadow fade | Exact pass propagation |
| Starlink train | Shared steady track | Minutes | Normally no | Many | Regular line/spacing | Recent deployment + pass |
| Aircraft | Steady / head-on / turning | Minutes | Often yes | 1 or several | Red/green/white lights | ADS-B bearing/altitude |
| Rocket plume / reentry | Expanding or slow fragment track | Tens sec–minutes | No aviation rhythm | 1 to many | Spiral, plume, fragments | Launch/reentry trajectory |
| Aurora | Diffuse evolving structure | Minutes–hours | No point-source blink | Extended | Curtains/rays/arcs | OVATION + darkness + weather |
| Planet / bright star | Stationary | Hours | Star may scintillate | 1 | Fixed in star field | Ephemeris/sky chart |
| Atmospheric / optical | Variable | Seconds–hours | Variable | Variable | Changes with cloud/viewpoint | Weather + viewpoint test |
How to use the matrix
Start with the least subjective columns: duration, repeated blinking and number of lights. Then add motion. Color is intentionally absent because it overlaps heavily between categories and camera/atmosphere can change it. Finally, use the external-evidence column to decide which dataset can meaningfully test the leading explanation.
For an actual sighting, the full identifier applies these ideas to your place and time while keeping missing data separate from negative evidence.